The National Confederation of Trade in Goods, Services and Tourism (CNC) has revised its expectation of growth in tourism from 3.5% to 4.3% compared to last year, due to the tendency to meet pent-up demand in recent years. The outlook is for Brazilian tourism to re-establish its pre-pandemic level of occupancy from the start of the hiring period for the next high season, ending 2022 with 319,400 jobs created.
For the services sector, despite the acceleration in prices, the organization revised its forecast for this year's revenue growth from 1.9% to 2.5% compared to 2021. The volume of revenue in the services sector grew by 0.7% in June compared to May 2022, already discounting seasonal effects, according to the Monthly Services Survey (PMS), released today (11/08) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Compared to the same month a year earlier, the 6.3% rise was the 16th in a row.
The month's biggest highlights are the 3% increase in general services provided to households, 2.4% in land transportation and 2.2% in technical and professional services. "In addition to the return to normal movement of people after the pandemic, which has boosted these activities since the second half of last year, service prices have not yet suffered the full shock expected, even though they have accelerated significantly in recent months," explains José Roberto Tadros, president of CNC. For an IPCA of 11.9% in the 12 months to June, the "services" group had a variation of 8.7%.
"Despite having been one of the hardest hit by the economic consequences of the pandemic, when compared to other sectors of the economy, the services sector is currently showing growth of 7%, the highest level of activity seen before the health crisis began," concludes Tadros.
Gradual resumption of flights, despite rising ticket prices
"Despite having returned to the red after restoring revenues to pre-pandemic levels in May, tourism still has favorable expectations, especially considering the potential for regenerating the flow of visitors to Brazil," says CNC economist Fabio Bentes.
Taking the flow of aircraft as a thermometer, at the country's 10 main airports - responsible for almost 7 out of every 10 daily flights - after a drop of 89% during the first wave of the pandemic, a consistent recovery process has begun. Bentes analyzes: "this daily flow is still 15% below what it was at the beginning of 2020, but airports with a vocation for meeting regional demands have already recovered their usual movement."
One of the factors holding back the acceleration in the recovery of tourism is the price of airline tickets. According to the IPCA, there was a variation of 122.4% in the 12 months to June this year.
Job recovery
Another indication that the sector will recover in the coming months has been the reaction of the formal job market in these activities. In the first six months of the pandemic, the sharp drop in activity led the sector to eliminate 469,800 formal jobs - a shrinkage equivalent to 12%.
In the months that followed, the sector made a robust recovery, replacing 365,100 of these vacancies between October 2020 and June 2022. The highlight was the hiring of 271,000 people in bars and restaurants and 67,400 in accommodation services. Since May last year, the monthly balances between admissions and dismissals have been positive.
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